Volume 14, Number
10–October 2008
Research
Estimating Community
Incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producing Escherichia
coli Infections, Australia
Gillian Hall,  Keflemariam Yohannes, Jane Raupach, Niels Becker, and Martyn Kirk
Author affiliations: Australian National University, Acton, Australian
Capital Territory, Australia (G. Hall); Department of Health and Ageing,
Canberra, Australia (K. Yohannes, M. Kirk,);
Department of Health, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (J. Raupach); and National Centre for Epidemiology and
Population Health (G. Hall, N. Becker)
Source of Article: http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/10/1601.htm
Abstract
To estimate multipliers linking surveillance of salmonellosis,
campylobacteriosis, and Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia
coli (STEC) infections to community incidence, we used data from a
gastroenteritis survey and other sources. Multipliers for severe (bloody
stool/long duration) and milder cases were estimated from the component
probabilities of doctor visit, stool test, sensitivity of laboratory test,
and reporting to surveillance system. Pathogens were classified by the same
severity criteria and appropriate multipliers applied. Precision of estimates
was quantified by using simulation techniques to construct 95% credible
intervals (CrIs). The multiplier for salmonellosis was estimated at 7 (95% CrI
4–16), for campylobacteriosis at 10 (95% CrI 7–22), and for STEC at 8 (95% CrI
3–75). Australian annual community incidence rates per 100,000 population
were estimated as 262 (95% CrI 150–624), 1,184 (95%
CrI 756–2,670), and 23 (95% CrI
13–54), respectively. Estimation of multipliers allows assessment of the true
effects of these diseases and better understanding of public health
surveillance.
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